ETA to explore the potential for pseudo-quantitative methods

This week you will use the ETA to explore the potential for pseudo-quantitative methods to work through the Five Questions.  Notice that when using ETA, you are starting with a single well defined scenario (what can go wrong), and then map varies pathways through the system that enables you to estimate the probability of success and failure of that scenario.

 

Week 3 Part 1

 

The USCG ETA case study discussed in class (and posted to Kodiak) includes discussion of lines of assurance that they considered including, but did not.  You will rebuild the ETA and include one of these lines of assurance.

  • review the case study (Posted to Kodiak),
  • build an Event Tree in a manner that is similar to that illustrated in the Case Study
  • Repeat the Base Case (Question 1 – Case 1) as presented in the document
  • Repeat but adding an additional line of assurance (call it Question 4)
  • Estimate the probability of success and failure of this new line of assurance for Question 4 – Case 1) (you will be the ‘expert’ whom will offer the estimated probability of success or failure of that new line of assurance).
  • Determine the total probability of Question 4 – Case 1 success
  • Make a recommendation as to new requirements for the vessels under study

 

Week 3 – Part 2

Construct your own ETA for some system for which you want to assess the risk as probability of success/failure.  You must include a description of the system so that I can assess the robustness of the associated ETA.  Identify and include relevant physical phenomena (if relevant to the system Initial Event), and lines of assurance that define the system.  You will also use this system to discuss risk management options, such as, what might you add to the system to decrease the risk

 

Note: you MUST use some drawing program to construct the ETA.  DO NOT scrawl some diagram in pencil and/or pen and expect to get credit.  There are many many many drawing programs AND you can always use excel or word to create a stick-figure type drawing that is very similar to that used in the USCG case study

 

 

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