Logistic regression model

The data include individuals’ age, their “social media mobility” (a larger number reflects a more active social media life), their smartphone’s operating system (A or B), and whether their phone was infected. Your task is two-fold:

1) Using the first 180 observations, build a logistic regression model to predict whether a given individual’s smartphone will be infected. Cross-validate this model with the hold-out sample consisting of the last 60 observations.
2) Similarly using the first 180 observations, conduct a CART effort with the aim of using these data to build a prediction tree to predict whether a given individual’s smartphone will be infected. Similar cross-validate this model with the hold-out sample.

Age Social OS Infect
52 69 A No
52 65 B No
58 57 B No
55 61 B Yes
58 29 A No
50 63 A No
63 69 A Yes
55 61 A Yes
51 45 B Yes
66 62 A No
43 69 B Yes
48 60 A No
50 67 B No
52 90 A No
47 47 A No
62 47 B No
57 60 B Yes
57 72 A Yes
56 36 A Yes
44 83 A No
68 54 A No
48 58 A No
61 43 A Yes
59 80 A Yes
61 45 B No
49 69 A Yes
58 62 A No
56 57 A No
61 55 A No
55 51 A No
52 40 A No
63 21 B No
56 50 B Yes
57 112 A Yes
55 62 A No
46 56 A No
51 72 B Yes
52 30 A No
66 71 B Yes
48 98 A No
56 37 A No
58 63 A No
51 71 A No
51 28 B No
64 72 B Yes
57 68 B Yes
59 67 A No
44 69 A No
58 70 B No
61 51 A No
51 46 A No
62 84 A No
51 52 B No
46 43 A No
61 44 B Yes
50 42 A No
62 48 A No
60 38 A No
52 46 A No
54 54 B No
51 57 A No
45 43 B No
54 81 A Yes
71 52 A Yes
53 55 B No
57 68 B Yes
51 55 A Yes
64 61 A No
54 16 B Yes
53 64 A Yes
45 66 B No
58 64 B Yes
57 49 A No
55 83 B No
48 67 B No
52 71 B Yes
61 34 B No
61 57 A No
65 63 B Yes
66 79 A Yes
60 57 B Yes
57 45 A Yes
54 63 A Yes
54 66 B No
58 69 B Yes
60 73 B No
52 77 A No
55 67 A No
55 76 A Yes
59 72 A Yes
52 60 A No
53 70 A No
55 66 A Yes
54 40 A No
45 51 A No
49 54 B Yes
56 37 A No
52 68 B Yes
53 55 A Yes
52 56 B Yes
58 45 A Yes
59 58 B No
61 35 A No
72 82 B Yes
58 57 A No
61 83 B Yes
49 45 A No
54 48 A No
53 42 A No
51 45 A No
57 56 A No
49 19 A No
44 51 A No
46 37 A No
47 98 B No
48 61 A No
49 37 A No
66 58 B No
56 40 A No
65 43 B No
61 74 A No
46 54 A Yes
51 74 B Yes
64 60 B No
53 53 A No
47 50 A No
52 83 A Yes
59 52 A Yes
52 87 B Yes
57 57 A No
57 64 A No
47 76 A Yes
53 61 A Yes
59 50 B No
55 32 B Yes
48 30 A No
51 59 A No
50 58 A No
57 74 A No
42 55 A No
64 30 A No
54 50 A Yes
61 47 B Yes
56 71 A No
49 57 B Yes
58 44 A Yes
52 55 A No
58 36 A Yes
58 56 A No
58 54 A No
61 50 A Yes
55 64 A No
62 47 B Yes
58 81 A Yes
67 52 A No
48 90 B Yes
47 58 A No
44 56 A No
61 58 A Yes
57 31 A No
49 55 A No
43 53 A No
64 69 B Yes
51 64 A Yes
61 52 A Yes
64 72 A Yes
59 55 B No
54 44 A No
60 48 A No
50 64 A No
64 57 B Yes
57 32 A Yes
58 54 A Yes
45 61 A No
50 70 B Yes
59 96 A Yes
64 61 A Yes
55 51 B Yes
49 41 B No
56 42 A No
63 68 A No
49 46 B Yes
59 61 B No
45 54 B No
65 73 B No
52 65 B Yes
40 63 B Yes
66 72 A No
65 29 B No
59 70 B Yes
49 29 B Yes
53 86 B Yes
50 68 A No
56 47 A No
58 55 B Yes
61 89 A Yes
63 47 A No
65 60 A Yes
61 48 B No
51 39 A No
50 61 B No
60 54 A No
51 64 B No
60 40 B No
56 68 A No
46 77 B No
46 64 B Yes
49 35 B Yes
52 41 A No
50 91 A Yes
53 64 A No
40 39 A No
50 71 A No
53 35 B Yes
51 72 B Yes
45 57 B No
51 73 A No
50 77 A No
52 48 A No
49 49 B No
58 56 A No
58 56 A No
56 51 B No
58 56 B Yes
66 38 B No
61 61 B Yes
57 54 B No
64 59 A No
59 63 A No
60 77 A Yes
53 95 A No
48 48 A No
56 84 A No
61 49 B No
48 71 B Yes
54 41 A No
46 38 A Yes
50 24 B No
55 83 B Yes
60 27 A No

Parts 3 and 4: On the second worksheet is a quarterly time series of shipments beginning in the first quarter of 1997. Your task is to compare a LOESS-decomposition model and an ARIMA model with regards to forecasting this time series. Use the first 72 quarters of data to build your models and use the last 8 quarters to compare them.

Quarter Year Units
1 1997 221.6
2 1997 222.2
3 1997 225.7
4 1997 226.1
1 1998 224.4
2 1998 222.8
3 1998 224.3
4 1998 221.7
1 1999 219.6
2 1999 220.3
3 1999 220.7
4 1999 218.1
1 2000 216.4
2 2000 219.2
3 2000 221.6
4 2000 216.5
1 2001 215.9
2 2001 220
3 2001 220.9
4 2001 214.2
1 2002 214.7
2 2002 218.2
3 2002 213.1
4 2002 204.3
1 2003 206.3
2 2003 209.1
3 2003 203
4 2003 193.1
1 2004 194.7
2 2004 195.3
3 2004 191.8
4 2004 183.2
1 2005 185.8
2 2005 184.2
3 2005 181.6
4 2005 169.1
1 2006 176.3
2 2006 172.7
3 2006 171.3
4 2006 158.8
1 2007 168.9
2 2007 164.5
3 2007 160.3
4 2007 151.3
1 2008 163.6
2 2008 157.5
3 2008 154.2
4 2008 144.2
1 2009 158.9
2 2009 151.8
3 2009 146.5
4 2009 138
1 2010 151.9
2 2010 146.9
3 2010 142.5
4 2010 136.6
1 2011 150.5
2 2011 143.9
3 2011 137.9
4 2011 131.1
1 2012 140.7
2 2012 132.5
3 2012 125.9
4 2012 119.2
1 2013 127.5
2 2013 119.2
3 2013 111.4
4 2013 107.3
1 2014 118.6
2 2014 108.8
3 2014 99.5
4 2014 96.2
1 2015 108.4
2 2015 98.1
3 2015 90.1
4 2015 88.4
1 2016 99.2
2 2016 89.9
3 2016 81.2
4 2016 82.1

 

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